巴菲特导师的投资秘诀

巴菲特导师的投资秘诀 | 双语阅读

来源：财经十一人

卡雷特的投资之旅经受住了时间的考验，他的职业生涯横跨了美国大萧条、第二次世界大战和无数次的市场周期，经历了31次牛市，30次熊市以及20次经济衰退期

Timeless investing lessons from a man Buffett called his mentor

巴菲特导师的投资秘诀

By ANUPAM NAGAR

When you are regarded as mentor and a hero by Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha, you surely are in the league of the world"s greatest investors to have ever stepped into the investment world.

如果一个人被“奥马哈先知”巴菲特当作导师和英雄，那么这个人理所当然地有资格进入这个世界上最伟大的投资人之列。

Surprisingly, few would name Philip Carret in such an elite list of greatest investors if asked to do so.

但令人惊讶的是，当人们说起最伟大的精英投资人的时候，菲利普·卡雷特的名字却不经常被提及。

Carret, one of the world investing history"s most underrated investors, is among a handful of names who have been able to have a successful run in the investment industry for a longtime.

卡雷特，作为世界投资历史上最被低估的投资人之一，是在投资行业中长期保持成功的为数不多的几名大师之一。

Carret"s investment journey stood the test of time and withstood the Great Depression, the Second World War and numerous market cycles in a career that spanned 31 bull markets,30bear markets and 20 recessions.

卡雷特的投资之旅经受住了时间的考验，他的职业生涯横跨美国大萧条、第二次世界大战和无数次的市场周期，经历了31次牛市，30次熊市以及20次经济衰退期。

He started one of America"s first investment funds in 1928, and was one of the first to share his thoughts on value investing in a series of articles in the Barron"s in 1927.

他在1928年的时候就创立了美国的最早投资基金之一，并且也是早在1927年就在巴伦周刊上就撰文分享价值投资观念的先驱之一。

Carret was a good friend of Buffett"s father and shared and discussed investment ideas with him frequently. Later, impressed by Warren Buffett"s management, Carret invested in Berkshire Hathaway, which became one of his most successful investments.

卡雷特是巴菲特父亲的好友，他也常与巴菲特分享并讨论他的想法和观点。后来，因为巴菲特的管理给卡雷特留下了良好的印象，卡雷特投资了他掌管的伯克希尔哈撒韦，这也成为了卡雷特最为成功的投资之一。

Buffett used to personally invite Carret to Berkshire Hathaway"s annualmeetings, which nowadays draws large attendance. In one of the meetings in1996,Buffett lauded Carret"s investment style,and said,"The mainthing is to find a wonderful business, like Phil Carret always did. He"s one ofmy heroes."

巴菲特曾经在伯克希尔哈撒韦的年会上以个人的名义邀请卡雷特出席，这个年会现在每年都会吸引众多听众。在1996年的一次会议上，巴菲特赞美了卡雷特的投资风格，他说到：“最主要的就是找到一家绝妙的企业，就像菲利普·卡雷特一直所实行的。他是我的英雄之一。”

Carret, who died in 1998 at the age of 101, actively invested in his company＇Pioneer Fund", which went on to become a global giant in fund management.

卡雷特在1998年过世，享年101岁。他积极地投资自己的公司“先锋资金”，后者继续发展，并成长为基金管理界的国际巨头。

Essential qualities for long-term investing success

长期投资并保持成功的必备品质

Carret said the key requisites for a successful long-term investing career are stamina and patience. "Traders rarely die rich; patient investors often do. I have known many [investors] who are a great deal smarter than me, but they haven"t had the mindset. After［one unsuccessful investment] I tried to review the mental process that had led me astray-my ego,"Carret once said in an interview whose video is available on YouTube.

卡雷特曾说过，对于长期投资的职业生涯来说，最不可或缺的品质即为毅力和耐心。“交易员们很少在死亡的时候仍然保持富有，但拥有耐力的投资人们常常如此。我知道许许多多的比我聪明的投资人们，但他们没有持之以恒的心态。每次不成功的投资之后，我都会尝试复盘当时让我误入歧途的心理过程，”卡雷特曾在一次访谈中如此描述自己的经历。

Carret"s 12 commandments of investing

卡雷特的12条投资戒律

From his wealth of investing experience, Carret developed 12 basic＇commandments of investing, "which are still followed by investors all overthe world.

从他丰富的投资经验中，卡雷特总结出了“12条投资的经典戒律”，而它们至今仍被全球投资人们奉为圭臬。

•Never hold fewer than 10 different securities covering five different fields of business.

持有的股票数永远不要少于10个，行业覆盖永远不要少于5个。

•Once every six months, reappraise every security held.

每6个月，对所持有的每只股票进行一次重新评估。

• Keep at least half the total fund in income-producing securities.

将总资金的至少一半放在产生收入的股票中。

• Consider (dividend) yield the least important factor in analyzing any stock.

把分红作为分析一只股票时最次要的因素。

• Be quick to take losses and reluctant to take profits.

在需要止损时迅速行动，在有可能获取利润时保持警惕和清醒，不要急功近利。

• Never put more than 25 per cent of a given fund in securities about which detailed information is not readily and regularly available.

永远不要将总资金的25%放在一个具体信息不明晰也不能定期获取的股票当中。

• Avoid inside information as you would the plague.

避免内部消息，因为你会受到干扰，心绪不宁。

• Seek facts diligently, advice never.

勤勉地搜寻事实，从不听取建议。

•Ignore mechanical formulas for value in securities.

忽略那些机械呆板的股价公式。

•When stocks are high, money rates are rising and businesses are prospering, at least half a given fund should be placed in short-term bonds.

当股票价格高企，货币利率升高以及企业正处于繁荣期的时候，应该至少将资金的一半放置于短期债券当中。

•Borrow money sparingly and only when stocks are low, money rates are low and falling and business are depressed.

借钱的时候一定要吝惜，并且只能在股票价格低廉、货币利率处于低位且处下降通道之中，而且企业们表现低迷的时期借款。

•Set aside a moderate proportion of available funds to purchase long-term options of stocks in promising companies whenever available.

保留一部分适量的资金，用以在有前景的公司的出现的时候购买他们的长期证券。

Is every investor a speculator?

是否每位投资人都是投机者呢?

Carret says every investor speculates at some level and it is very rare for an investor to know everything about an investment, as there is always an unknown element which is out of aninvestor"s grasp.

卡雷特认为每一个投资人都会在一定程度上进行投机，并且对于一位投资人来说，了解一桩投资的方方面面是极为稀少的情形，因为总会有一两个未知因素处于投资人力所能及的范围之外。

＂The line between an investor and speculator is blurry because every investment comes with some speculative risk. The road to success in speculation is the study of value. The successful speculator must purchase or hold securities that are selling for less than their real value, avoid or sell securities that are selling at more than their real value," he said.

“投资人和机会主义者之间的界限是模糊的，因为每一桩投资都伴随着一些投机的风险。通过投机的成功之路是学习的价值。成功的投机者必须购买和持有以低于内生价值的价格出售的证券，避免持有或者售出那些以高于内在价值的价格出售的证券，”卡雷特说到。

5 mistakes novice speculators tend to commit

5个新手投资人常犯的错误

Carret says a novice speculator often falls into the trap of making big mistakes, which then lead to huge capital losses.

卡雷特认为新手投机者们容易掉入犯下巨大错误的陷阱之中，从而损失巨额的资金。

1.A novice often skips the process of analysing stocks and buys or sells stocks based on what peers do.

1.初学者往往忽略甚至跳过股票的分析过程，只是跟随他的同伴们的交易行为买入或是卖出。

His tip: One should analyse the cause behind price movements and then analyze stocks that were best positioned to produce a favorable outcome before making an investmentdecision.

他的诀窍：投资人应该分析股票价格走势背后的动因，进而分析那些处于最佳位置的可以产出最佳收益的股票们，再做出投资决策。

2.Novice investors often buy shares on a stock tip without doing their own research, and then they have no clue when to sell as they do not know the difference between price and valueand make decisions based on the price paid.

2. 新人们往往跟随市场上的投资建议购买股票，并且自己不做相应的研究，因此他们不知道什么时机卖出，因为他们不懂得价格和价值的区别所在，而他们做出卖出的决策的动因通常是基于他们已经支付的价格。

His tip: The novice investor is just as likely to a make a quick profit should the price rise, as they will if they hold on-and try to break even-should the price fall.

他的诀窍：就像股票价格升高时，投资新手们容易快速获利了结一样，当股票价格下滑的时候，他们也容易继续持有这只股票并希望赚回本金。

3.Carret said whenever the stock strategy of a novice speculator fails, s/he looks for some system to be able to time the market, which can predict future prices based on past price movements. But they are unaware of the fact that it is impossible to time the market.

3. 卡雷特表示，当一个投资新手的投资策略失效的时候，他就会想要找寻一种可以测定市场时机的系统，这种系统可以根据过去的价格预测未来的价格。但是他们对于市场是不可预测的这个事实却一无所知。

His tip: The stock market only bears a rough relationship to business cycles, and is characterised by much wider and more violent swings. Never try and time the market, or look at the overall price level of the market-look at the individual stocks you"re buying.

他的窍诀：股市只与商业周期有着非常粗浅的联系，而且波及面更为广泛的，并且凶猛的动荡才是股市的特征。永远不要尝试预测市场，也不要在购买单只股票的时候去看整个股票市场的价格水平和股市行情。

4.Novice speculators end up being very impatient and make poor investment decisions.

4.新手投资人们常常在最后失去耐心从而做出糟糕的投资决策。

His tip: Do not forget and ignore that the market cycle does exist.

他的窍诀：永远不要忘记和忽视，市场周期是真实存在着的这一事实。

5. Novice speculators often become emotionally attached to an investment, which leads to huge losses in the long run.

5. 新人投资者们往往对于一桩投资产生感情上的依恋，而长期以往，会使他们损失巨大。

His tip :Never be possessive or getattached to a stock or any investment.

他的建议：永远不要变得占有欲强烈，永远不要沉迷依恋于一只股票或者任何一桩投资。

When stocks go in and out of favour

当股票受到青睐或失去市场的宠幸

Carret says in the short term, the market is a huge popularity contest, where the crowd throws in money at the cool and trendy stocks. He says stocks, sectors, industries, countries and strategies often go in and out of favour, but they never last.

卡雷特说过，短期来看，市场是一个巨大的欢迎度竞赛，人群会向那些酷且潮的股票投掷他们的资金。他说不论股票，细分市场，行业，国家甚至政策都常常获得或者失去市场的热度和宠爱，但这些高高低低都不会持久下去。

＂There are styles in securities as there are in clothes. A security may be undervalued, but if it is also out of style, it is of little interest to a speculator. Therefore, an investor is compelled to study the psychology of the stock market as well as the elements of real value. So it"s notenough to know that something may be undervalued or overvalued. You also need to know whether the crowd believes a thing to be undervalued or overvalued," he once said.

“就像在时装行业会有流行趋势一样，股票市场中也有风口。一只股票可能被低估，同时也是不合潮流的，它对于一位投机者来说来说便一文不名。但是，一位投资人必须学习股市的心理学，同时掌握衡量股票真正价值的元素，因此对于他来说知道一只股票是被高估还是低估了，仍是不足够的。一位投资人需要了解的还有在大众心中，这件事物是被高估了抑或是被低估了“，他曾经如此说到。

Stock market is always forward looking

股票市场总是朝前看

Investors spend too much time studying the past in search of clue as to what might happen next.Carret believed the stock market is always forward looking and turns in the stock market typically precede business cycle, and it"s not the other way around.

投资人们耗费大量的时间研究过去的线索以期推断接下来会发生什么。卡雷特坚信股票市场从不回头看，也因此股票市场的反应总是领先于商业周期，而不是反过来。

＂The best one can hope for is to recognise when things look frothy or depressed and take advantage of the opportunity, expecting that it will always be earlier or later than the exact turn. It is usually a much simpler matter to forecast a bull market than to call the turn at its end," he said.

“最好的投资人能够识别事物是否看上去充满了泡沫还是快要进入衰退，并且可以运用这些他本人预见的机遇，他会期待股市的反应早于或是晚于实际的周期。事实上，预测一个牛市的到来，比预测它的结束要容易得多，” 卡雷特说到。

Traders prefer optimism over pessimism

交易员们常显现出乐观而不是悲观情绪

Carret says an average trader is naturally a chronic bull and prefers optimism to pessimism . He said investors associate the acquisition of wealth with rising markets and failures, ruin, depression and panics with falling markets. He said it takes a special kind of mentality for investors to short anything when markets are naturally biased on the upside.

卡雷特认为，普通的交易员往往认为股市就是慢牛市，并且倾向于表现出乐观而不是悲观情绪。他接着说，投资人会将自己的所得归类于市场的升温，失败，损失，衰退以及慌乱则归类于市场的下沉。他认为投资人需要具备一种非常特别的思维模式，才能在天然倾向于牛市的市场情绪中去做空任何一支股票。

Investing is all about risk management

投资就是风险管理

Carret said investing is all about risk management and one needs to manage possible losses to protect capital.

卡雷特说过投资就是一切和风险管理有关的事物，也就是说投资人需要管理可能的损失来保护他的资本。

＂To be successful, a speculator must know a great deal more than merely enough about the general conditions to determine the broader market trend. One must be a student of valuein individual securities. To appraise values in individual securities, one must know something about many different businesses.. Above all, one must know something of accounting... The question of ascertaining market trend is important to the speculator, but it should not rank any higher in importance than the question of intelligent selection of vehicles,” he said.

“如果想要获得成功，一个投资人必须知道远超仅仅是足够的信息量，来判定更广泛的市场趋势。他必须是每支独立股票的价值研究员。为了评估一只股票的价值，他必须知道一些不同的行业知识。最重要的是，他必须要知道一些会计方面的知识。对于一位投资人而言，确认市场的趋势固然重要，但这不应该排位在智慧地选择具体的股票之前，“他曾说。

Market always presents opportunity

市场总有机会

Carret said to become successful in investing, it is essential for investors to know where they are in a market cycle, which stocks might benefit the most based on that and which ones offer value as there are always opportunities for investors who are disciplined, dedicated and knowledgeable.

卡雷特表示，为了在投资中取得成功，投资人们必须要知道他们处于市场的哪一个周期之中，哪一只股票能从中获益最多，而哪一些股票能够提供价值，因为市场永远会为那些严于律己的，投入的并且知识渊博的投资人们提供机会。

＂Stocks often sell at ridiculously low prices for a considerable period of time merely because few people know anything about them. The speculator, who discovers a stock in this situation, does not need to foresee future growth in earnings. If the stock is selling well below the level which current earnings and position justify, and there is nothing in sight to impair its position in the near future, one may be sure that others will discover it and that with time it will rise to a reasonable price level," he said.

“股票常常会以令人啼笑皆非的低廉价格在相当长一段时间内出售仅仅是因为知道他们的人非常稀少。一个投资人如果发现了这样的一只被低估的股票，他并不需要预见这家公司未来的收入增长。因为他现在的价格就相对于它的收入而言处于低位，那么它的低廉的状态在短期内不会受到任何视线以内的事物的干扰，因此这个时候，投资人可以肯定的是其他人也会将之挖掘出来，并且它的价格会伴随时间发生，而增长至一个合理的水平，” 他如是说。

Treat your portfolio as your own business

将你的投资组合视作自己经营的企业

Carret says one should treat a portfolio as they would treat his/her own business, where one would try to minimise losses, maximise profits and do what"s in the best interest for the long-term success of a portfolio.

卡雷特说，一个投资人应该将自己的投资组合视作他们自己的企业，在自己的企业里，他们会尝试最小化损失、最大化收益和利润，并且做出最符合长期利益的决策。

He said thinking in terms of a business reinforces the idea that any change to the portfolio should improve the＇business" overall.

他表示，从企业经营的角度来考量自己的投资组合可以帮助投资人以一种提升“企业”的总体表现的思路做出投资组合变动的决策。

Carret said debt used under right circumstances and in a minimal way could be a net positive for returns, but if used in excess, is can be very dangerous and can wipe out an investor"s portfolio.

卡雷特还表示，在正确的情形下少额借债对于回报来说是正向积极的，但是如果过量举债，它将会变得非常危险并且可能将投资人的投资组合一并抹杀。

＂The draw of higher returns often blinds us to potentially debilitating outcomes. Unlikely things happen often enough that it"s not worth risking your "business" over," he said.

“对于更高的回报的追求常常会使人们变得盲目，从而促使人们忽视可能的结果。所谓“不太可能发生的事”其实发生得并不少。因此不值得你将一切的“企业”都作为赌注，“他这么说到。

Hardest part of investing

投资中最困难的部分

Carret says trying to decide when to sell a stock is one of the hardest parts of investing and that is why he used to buy good companies and sit on them as they grew only to sell whensomething went terribly wrong.

试图决定何时卖出一只股票是投资中最为困难的部分之一，这也是为什么他曾经购买那些好的公司并一直持有他们的股票，和他们一同成长，并只在一些特别糟糕的事情发生的情况下选择出售他们。

＂It is very simple; buy good companies and sit on them. There are good well-managed companies, which are a handful. There are companies that have moderately good managements, which are not going bankrupt at least, but probably are not going to giveshareholders glowing returns. There are companies that are over-leveraged－they owe a lot of money and are skating on thin ice. When things get tough, they are going to go bankrupt. So the job of an investment manager is to pick the good [companies] and sit on［their stock for many years]," he said.

“这非常简单：买入那些好的公司并且持有他们。他们是管理良好的企业，实际上为数并不多。市场上也有一些公司属于适当管理水平，他们至少不会破产，但是很可能也不会给予投资人们亮眼的回报。市场上还有一些过高地使用杠杆的公司。他们欠一屁股的债从而如履薄冰。正因如此，当环境变得艰难的时候，他们将会陷入破产的境地。因此一家投资公司的经理的工作就是找出那些良好的（公司）并且一直持有（他们的股票很多年），” 他总结道。

原载2020年12月5日The Economic Times ；翻译：杨赛

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